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Trade Ideas

Global trade idea - Baker Hughes Co (BKR) - BUY

 

Baker Hughes Co is an international oilfield products and services company that provides a wide range of services and products to the oil and gas industry, including drilling and evaluation services, completion and production services, digital solutions and turbomachinery and process solutions.

The company saw a strong start to the year, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surging 87% and revenue adding 18% for 1Q23, both ahead of expectations. Management's outlook remains upbeat, despite oil demand concerns amid mounting expectations for a recession in the short-term. The company remains well-positioned to benefit from the global energy transition, with its focus on providing energy and industrial companies with more efficient, reliable, and cleaner technologies and solutions.

Technically, an ascending channel pattern makes the stock an attractive investment opportunity (see the red and green upward sloping trendlines as well as the insert). Investors may use such a pattern to identify potential buying or selling opportunities, such as buying the stock when the price approaches the lower boundary (support level) of the channel. We anticipate that the price will continue to rise from current levels.

Fading downside price momentum according to the MACD indicator, as well as the recent upwards movement of the OBV indicator, supports our bullish stance.

We suggest a low at-risk allocation for this trade and apply a medium technical rating to the analysis.

Share Information

Share code BKR
Industry Oil & gas equipment and services
Market capatalisation (USD) 30.03 billion
One year total return -5.58%
Return year-to-date 1.05%
Current price(USD) 29.66
52 weeek high(USD) 38.66
52 week low(USD) 20.42
Financial year end December
Closing paragraph The stock is trading above its 200-day simple moving average- a bullish signal. We expect moderate to high price volatility going forward.

Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)

FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Headline Earnings per Share (USD) 0.91 1.56 2.05 2.53
Growth (%) 70.88 31.58 23.41
Dividend Per Share (USD) 0.73 0.76 0.79 0.74
Growth (%) 4.25 4.20 -6.43
Forward PE (times) 19.07 14.50 11.75
Forward Dividend Yield (%) 2.57 2.67 2.50
Closing paragraph Medium-term growth prospects remain strong, with the outlook for energy services remaining robust.

Buy/Sell Rationale

Technical Analysis:

  • The lower panel shows occurrences of a Three Outside Up Japanese candlestick pattern, indicated by a reading of 1. This pattern is used to identify potential bullish reversals in a stock's price.
  • Note that the pattern has only occurred three times since 2013, which may indicate that it is a strong bullish signal, a relatively rare event.
  • Our entry range for this trade is between $29 and $31 - a drop below this level would indicate a structural change in the trend, providing reason to disregard the idea.
  • Our target price is $235 (~16.3% upside from current levels) which is at the mid-range of the inclining channel pattern.
  • Forward calculations of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest the stock will be in overbought territory at around $38, justifying our profit target.
  • The proposed time to exit is mid-June 2023, though investors can adjust for either a longer or shorter horizon, depending on price behaviour.
  • A drop below $28 (~6.9% downside from current levels) will be of major concern, and as such is recommended as a stop-loss.

Fundamental view:

  • The company operates through two primary segments, oilfield services and equipment or OFSE (~60% of revenue), and industrials and energy technology or IET segment (~40%).
  • The bulk of its revenue, ~77%, is generated outside of the US (~23%).
  • Recent results for the first quarter came in ahead of market forecasts on both top- and bottom-line metrics, with profitability supported by rising oil prices which boosted demand for the group's equipment and services.
  • The performance, which supports expectations for a multi-year growth opportunity for the current oil and gas spending cycle, was supported by strong order momentum during the quarter.
  • Management's outlook remains optimistic for energy services, citing the portfolios diversification by way of long and short-cycle businesses that positions the group well to navigate the uncertain macroeconomic terrain.
  • The group also cited global energy transition away from 'dirty' fuels, as providing an important role for natural gas as a transition and destination fuel.
  • Downside risks to the business include continued volatility in oil markets, particularly amid rising recessionary concerns, although a surprise cut by OPEC+ during the quarter and strong demand amid a rebound in China have remained supportive. Other downside risks to our fundamental views include a larger-than-expected global economic slowdown, lower-than-expected spending by upstream oil and gas companies, geopolitical and economic risk including continued inflation risk, as well as pressures around sustainability and climate change.

Share Name and position CBOE - Profit Take
(Close the position)
MA - Buy
(Continue to hold)
PEP - Buy
(Continue to Hold)
Entry 127.18 354.44 178.01
Current 138.72 375.00 185.33
Movement 9.1% 5.8% 4.1%
Summary text Exit the trade to reduce overall portfolio exposure. The stock price is showing an incomplete ascending triangle pattern and trading above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum supports the bullish trend.

Our profit target is $395.00, with a trailing stop-loss of $358.50. Time exit: 26 May 2023.
A stable bullish trend remains of interest. The stock price remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum supports the bullish trend.

Our profit target is $200.00 with a trailing stop-loss of $179.50. Time exit: 10 May 2023.

Share Name and position MSFT - Buy
(Continue to Hold)
KO - Buy
(Continue to hold)
BDRY - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 276.20 61.85 9.05
Current 286.11 63.96 9.25
Movement 3.6% 3.4% 2.2%
Summary text The price recently breached a major resistance level. The stock is trading above its 200-day simple moving average, but upside momentum has halted - a concern to the bullish trend.

Our profit target is $300.00, with a trailing stop-loss of $268.00. Time exit: 9 June 2023.
A symmetrical triangle pattern during a prior uptrend continues to be noteworthy. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum supports the bullish trend.

Our profit target remains at $67.00, with a trailing stop-loss at $62.00. Time exit: 16 June 2023.
The price is in accumulation phase and remains just below its 200-day simple moving average. Fading upside momentum is a concern.

Our profit target remains at $12.00, with a trailing stop-loss at $8.00. Time exit: 21 June 2023.