By Peet Serfontein, Zimele Mbanjwa
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R355. We recommend a stop-loss at R233.
Harmony Gold is a gold mining and exploration company operating across South Africa, Papua New Guinea and Australia. The company explores, extracts and processes gold, silver and related by-products, and is one of the world's largest gold producers by volume. Harmony serves international precious metals markets and continues to expand its portfolio through organic growth and strategic acquisitions.
The company produced ~1.56 million ounces of gold in FY25 and maintains a diversified portfolio of underground and surface mining operations. The company focuses on extending mine life, increasing operational efficiency and developing high-quality growth projects, including the Wafi-Golpu copper-gold project in Papua New Guinea.
Technically, Harmony presents an attractive long opportunity as the share trades near the lower boundary of a positively sloped long-term linear regression channel (see the insert on the main chart), an area that has historically acted as support within the broader uptrend. This positioning suggests a favourable risk-reward profile, with downside risk appearing limited.
The bullish case is further supported by evidence that the share is emerging from the Wyckoff accumulation phase, suggesting that stronger, longer-term investors may be gradually building positions.
Fading downside momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, and the upside movement of the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator are also supportive.
Share Performance
Share Information
| Share Code | HAR |
| Industry | Materials |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 172.61 billion |
| One-Year Total Return | 11.95% |
| Return Year-To-Date | -18.07% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 271.06 |
| 52-Week High (ZAR) | 428.88 |
| 52-Week Low (ZAR) | 213.52 |
| Financial Year End | June |
| So far this year, the share price has trended lower, in line with the gold price. However, fundamental production and cost metrics have been positive. | |
Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 23.37 | 43.05 | 62.78 | 66.01 |
| Growth (%) | 84.20 | 45.83 | 5.14 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 3.82 | 12.87 | 15.49 | 18.34 |
| Growth (%) | 236.99 | 20.29 | 18.42 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 6.30 | 4.32 | 4.11 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 4.75 | 5.71 | 6.77 | |
| The market anticipates that Harmony will deliver exceptional short-term earnings growth, but this momentum is not expected to be sustained over the medium term due, perhaps, to uncertainty attached to underlying commodity prices. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale
Technical Analysis
Fundamental view
Update on previous trade ideas
| Share Name and position | Entry | Current Price | Movement | Comment | Time to exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLH SA - Close position (Stop-loss) | 4.44 | 4.30 | -3.2% | The share triggered our stop-loss, and the position has been closed. | |
| SPG SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 17.29 | 18.99 | +9.8% | Price action suggests the early stages of Elliott Wave b, supporting the trade idea. However, the share remains below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), while fading upside momentum warrants caution. We maintain our target at R98, with a trailing stop-loss at R83. | 17 August 2026 |
| BTI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 976.99 | 1 024.89 | +4.9% | A developing bullish pennant, the share remaining above its 200-day SMA, and emerging upside momentum supports the trade idea. We maintain our target at R1 202, with a trailing stop-loss R977. | 4 November 2026 |
| NRP SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 142.42 | 148.92 | +4.6% | A developing ascending triangle continues to support the trade idea, with the share remaining above its 200-day SMA. However, stalled upside momentum warrants caution. We maintain our target at R160, with a trailing stop-loss at R145. | 17 August 2026 |
| INL SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 135.08 | 137.61 | +1.9% | An ascending triangle, the share remaining above its 200-day SMA and fading downside momentum support a bullish bias. We maintain our target at R153, with a trailing stop-loss at R134. | 21 September 2026 |
| SLM SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 86.81 | 85.07 | -2.0% | The price action suggests the early stages of Elliott Wave b, supporting the trade idea. However, the share remains below its 200-day SMA, while fading upside momentum remains a concern. We maintain our target at R98, with a trailing stop-loss at R83. | 27 September 2026 |
